Past and future climate-driven changes of agricultural land in central Europe

Abstract

Europe is expected to experience major climatic shifts during the 21st century but the impact on agricultural productivity from such changes is uncertain. Here, we combine proxy, instrumental, and model data to assess interannual to multi-centennial changes in central European agroclimate over the past 2,000 years and projections into the near future. Whereas early 21st century conditions are rare but not fully unprecedented, more than half of the area that was considered highly productive throughout the Common Era in central Europe currently falls outside of that definition. This trend will likely continue as even the most conservative climate projections push central Europe outside the range of past natural variability of changes to agroclimatic zones. Reconstructed extremes prior to the instrumental record align well with contemporary documentary records of societal upheaval. Forecasted changes to the main agroclimatic drivers require substantial adaptation in land use and agricultural management strategies of considerable costs.