“It’s the economy, stupid” – But what kind of economy?
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Abstract
An abundance of the literature shows that the economy always mattered for election outcomes and voters’ political behaviour. The effect is multifaceted, as mushrooming literature points to the importance of different dimensions of the economic vote – valence, positional, and patrimony. The three dimensions have so far been mostly explored in relatively self-contained pieces of literature. In this research, I take a step further and ponder the importance of the interplay of two economic vote dimensions (valence and positional) on vote choice and voters’ political interests.
To test the interplay between economic vote dimensions and their effect on voting behaviour and political interests, I take redistribution preferences as a positional economic issue and the rise of income inequality as a valence economic condition. I analyse the effect of these predictors on vote choice in times after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, given that these topics gained salience in the mentioned period. So, the overall research question of this project is - Have people who wanted more redistribution punished incumbents who were in office during the rise of economic inequality?
Analysis of a Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) dataset, comprising 50 election studies, from 31 countries, in 10 years, reveal that redistribution preferences matter for vote choice. However, its effect is moderated by rising levels of inequality, the party’s ideological leanings, and incumbency status. When inequality is higher, voters who want more redistribution often opt for left-wing parties in opposition. Additionally, voters, more often than not, cast a vote which aligns their redistribution preferences with party stances on the issue. The effect is further amplified in countries with a higher rise in income inequality.
These findings open new avenues of research in economic voting and suggest that the interplay of economic vote dimensions should also be considered when estimating the economy's effect on vote choice.