Authors:	Griebeler, Eva Maria Kadereit, Joachim W.
Title:	Decline of Tephroseris helenitis in Hessia (Germany) over the last 120 years : modeling implies the gradual disappearance of its temperature niche for flower induction and germination
Online publication date:	22-Feb-2024
Year of first publication:	2023
Language:	english
Abstract:	Tephroseris helenitis is a perennial herb that experienced a severe decline of species records over the last 120 years in the state of Hessia, Germany. Here, the species is found in humid habitats with moderate temperatures. In this modeling study, we assessed changes in climatic conditions between the periods 1900–1949, 1950–1979, 1980–1999 and 2000–2020 and explored whether these changes can explain the decline of records of T. helenitis. Climatic variables used were monthly precipitation sums, monthly mean, minimum and maximum temperatures, monthly temperature ranges as well as annual precipitation sum and annual mean temperature. For the majority of these variables, changes were significant across periods. Minimum temperatures in March, April and July (Tmin_Mar, Tmin_Apr, Tmin_Jul) best explained species presences and absences in 1900–1949 and 1950–1979. The species shifted its realized niche towards lower Tmin_Mar and narrowed its niche on Tmin_Apr and Tmin_Jul between these two periods. March, April and July are crucial in the life cycle of T. helenitis. Tmin_Mar and Tmin_Apr are related to the induction of flowering through a period of low temperatures (vernalization), and Tmin_Jul is related to seed germination. Documented increasing March and April temperatures as well as autumn and winter temperatures in the past 120 years may imply that vernalization became increasingly unsuccessful for the species and increasing July temperatures may have decreased its germination success. Given the disappearance of its temperature niche (Tmin_Mar, Tmin_Apr, Tmin_Jul) due to ongoing global warming not only in Hessia and Germany, we anticipate that T. helenitis will go extinct in Europe.
DDC:	570 Biowissenschaften 570 Life sciences
Institution:	Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz
Department:	FB 10 Biologie
Place:	Mainz
ROR:	https://ror.org/023b0x485
DOI:	http://doi.org/10.25358/openscience-10108
Version:	Published version
Publication type:	Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Document type specification:	Scientific article
License:	CC BY
Information on rights of use:	https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Journal:	Ecology and evolution 13 12
Pages or article number:	e10769
Publisher:	Wiley
Issue date:	2023
ISSN:	2045-7758
Publisher DOI:	10.1002/ece3.10769
Appears in collections:	DFG-491381577-G