Microphysical parameter choices modulate ice content and relative humidity in the outflow of a warm conveyor belt

Abstract

Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) play a crucial role in Earth's climate by transporting water vapor and hydrometeors into the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS), where they influence radiative forcing. However, a major source of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and climate projections stems from the parameterization of microphysical processes and their impact on cloud radiative properties as well as the vertical re-distribution of water. In this study, we use Lagrangian data from a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of a WCB case study to investigate how variations in microphysical parameterizations influence water transport into the UTLS and the outflow cirrus properties. We find that the thermodynamic conditions (pressure, temperature, specific humidity) at the end of the WCB ascent show little sensitivity to the explored parameter perturbations. In contrast, ice content and relative humidity exhibit substantial variability, primarily driven by the capacitance of ice (CAP) and the scaling of ice formation processes directly influenced by ice-nucleating particle (INP) concentrations. Different combinations of CAP and INP scaling yield vastly different ice and relative humidity distributions at the end of the ascent and in the subsequent hours. These differences are particularly pronounced in fast-ascending air parcels, where modifications to the saturation adjustment scheme (SAT) introduce small variations in pressure and temperature at the end of ascent. Our findings have potential implications for parameter choices in cloud models and considerations for geoengineering strategies. Future comparisons with high-quality observational data could help constrain the most realistic parameter choices, ultimately improving weather and climate forecasts.