Time pressure and strategic risk-taking in professional chess

Abstract

We study the impact of time pressure on strategic risk-taking of professional chess players. We propose a novel machine-learning-based measure for the degree of strategic risk of a single chess move and apply this measure to the 2013–2023 FIDE Chess World Cups that allow for variation in thinking time. Our results indicate that having less thinking time consistently leads chess players to opt for more risk-averse moves. This effect is particularly pronounced in disadvantageous positions, that is, in which a player is trailing behind. We additionally provide correlational evidence for strategic loss aversion, a tendency for more risky moves after a mistake and in a disadvantageous position. Our results suggest that even high-proficiency decision-makers in high-stake situations react to time pressure and contextual factors more broadly.