Voting for the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) from a policy space perspective

Abstract

This contribution studies voting for the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) through a three-dimensional policy space model (economic, transnational and morality dimension). What makes the new German party special is its unusual bundling of economically left-leaning with right-leaning positions on the transnational dimension, most prominently on immigration. We investigate how this policy mix is reflected among its voters. In a first study, we use cross-sectional survey data from March 2024 (GLES Tracking T57) to show that voting intentions for the BSW are associated with more left-wing economic positions and with more nationalist positions, but unrelated to positions on the morality dimension. In a second follow-up study, we use panel survey data (GLES Panel) to establish that positions on the economic and transnational dimensions shape switching to the BSW (in June 2024) in conjunction with individuals’ prior party preferences. In line with the spatial perspective, nationalist positions predict switching to the BSW among previous supporters of left-leaning parties, whereas it is economically left-wing positions that predict switching to the BSW among previous supporters of right-leaning parties. Our results support a policy space-based explanation of the early success of the BSW, suggesting that new parties may succeed by offering new bundles of policy positions.